作者們研究了1820-1931發生在拉丁美洲的主權債務違約情況，發現系統性主權違約危機（至少有三分之一的國家集體違約）集中在不同時期的金融中心危機發生附近。這意味著金融中心危機引發的系統性違約危機對邊緣國家(periphery countries)有著深遠的負面影響。
相對于獨立主權違約危機(idiosyncratic crises)，系統性主權違約危機通常是在違約國家international liquity[1]崩潰的過程中萌發。
此外，系統性違約危機時期的受災國家出口減速程度也遠低于獨立主權違約危機時期。
這樣的情況表明，系統性違約危機和獨立違約危機的分野在于，走出系統性違約危機不僅需要阻止international liquity繼續下滑，也還要大力提振本國經濟。
比之獨立主權違約危機，系統性違約危機有著更長的影響期，讓投資人遭受更嚴重的損失。
作者們認為，始于金融中心的系統性違約危機產生的負面影響會令邊緣國家陷入冗長無用的債務談判中。要幫助它們走出違約困境，危機國家需要得到更多的債務減計。
債務減計簡直無情（不過我們內心可以這樣安慰：反正不也拿不回來錢嘛，倒不如賣個人情...）。中國未來的國際金融中心（上海？）能在世界市場上有著如論文里提到的金融中心那般舉足輕重的影響嗎？又是否也會在某個時刻（注定）引爆一場世界性的金融危機呢？
原文: Eurozone crisis: Looking back to the future
CheatSheet
linger [VERB]
: When something such as an idea, feeling, or illness lingers, it continues to exist for a long time, often much longer than expected.
portray [VERB]
: To represent or describe someone or something in a painting, film, book or other artistic work
persistent [VERB]
: If an unpleasant feeling or situation persists, it continues to exist
idiosyncratic
: A strange or unusual habit, way of behaving or feature that someone or something has
woe
: extreme sadness
escalate [VERB]
: increase or develop by successive stages; become or make (sth) more intense
mire[NOUN]
: an unpleasant situation which is difficult to escape
ridden [COMB in ADJ]
: full of something unpleasant or bad
erupt [VERB]
: to explode or burst out suddenly
standstill[NOUN]
: a condition in which all movement or activity has stopped
midst [PREP-PHRASE]
: If something happens in the midst of an event, it happens during it
on the heels of
: soon after something.
bonanza
: a situation from which large profits are made
underwriter [N-COUNT]
: If a bank or other organization underwrites an activity, it gives it financial support and takes responsibility for paying any costs if it fails
onset [N-SING]
: The onset of something is the beginning of it, used especially to refer to something unpleasant
insurance [NOUN]
: Release
restructure [VERB]
: To organize a company, business or system in a new way to make it operate more effectively
protracted [ADJ]
: Lasting for a long time or made to last longer
sluggish [ADJ]
: moving or operating more slowly than usual and with less energy or power
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the term 'international liquidity' embraces all those assets which are internationally acceptable without loss of value in discharge of debts (on external accounts. For more details, click What is International Liquidity ?
