一個(gè)暢游人工智能之銀河工程師的人生指南
哥倫比亞大學(xué)工程學(xué)院畢業(yè)典禮演講
2017年5月15日
李開(kāi)復(fù)博士，創(chuàng)新工場(chǎng)創(chuàng)始人兼CEO
謝謝，2017界的畢業(yè)生們。謝謝你們能通請(qǐng)我來(lái)到這個(gè)精彩的畢業(yè)慶典上和大家聊幾句。能夠重回哥大為你們這群杰出的畢業(yè)生們、學(xué)生的父母?jìng)儭⑿值芙忝脗円约疤貏e嘉賓做演講是我莫大的榮幸。今天，就讓我們聚在起來(lái)分享這場(chǎng)畢業(yè)盛會(huì)的喜悅。
首先，我想對(duì)你們說(shuō)我真的為你們感到非常的驕傲，你們干得漂亮。你們的家人也都為你們感到驕傲，今天是屬于你們的。
我依稀記得34年前我坐在你們這個(gè)位置時(shí)的情形，感覺(jué)那個(gè)時(shí)候是我生命中最美好的時(shí)光，我找到了人生中最喜愛(ài)的專(zhuān)業(yè)-人工智能，我找到我一生的愛(ài)好-橋牌，我曾經(jīng)每周玩30個(gè)小時(shí)的橋牌，但直到如今哥大仍然沒(méi)有給我發(fā)一個(gè)橋牌的學(xué)位證。在哥大時(shí)我遇到了我的初戀，并最終成為我一生的摯愛(ài)。在我的畢業(yè)典禮上，我有幸聆聽(tīng)到著名的科幻作家阿西莫夫的演講，但今天我只能抱歉的說(shuō)你們只能聽(tīng)聽(tīng)我的發(fā)言了。
無(wú)論怎么樣，在哥倫比亞大學(xué)的幾年是我人生中最美好的時(shí)光之一。或許這也是你們會(huì)期待我或者其他演講者在這個(gè)畢業(yè)典禮上對(duì)你們說(shuō)：“這是你們?nèi)松凶顬槊篮玫膸啄陼r(shí)光”，但是，今天我并不打算這么說(shuō)。
因?yàn)槲抑溃@離你們將來(lái)最為美好的時(shí)光還有很大差距，我知道屬于你們的巔峰時(shí)期還沒(méi)到來(lái)。具體說(shuō)來(lái)，我希望接下來(lái)的10年將會(huì)是你生命當(dāng)中最為美好的10年。
為什么是10年呢？10年好像很遙遠(yuǎn)，但是事實(shí)并非如此。如果一起回想2007年5月，你就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)這可能是一個(gè)很好的方式去預(yù)想未來(lái)的10年里我們的世界排會(huì)發(fā)生什么樣的變化。
回想起2007年，依然覺(jué)得非常有趣，當(dāng)史蒂夫喬布斯向世人展示iphone時(shí)，我依然在使用我的的黑莓手機(jī)，我的太太還在使用她的諾基亞手機(jī)。
就在2007年年輕的議員巴拉克奧巴馬宣布競(jìng)選總統(tǒng)時(shí)，唐納德川普依然在說(shuō)“你被解雇了”，而不是如今宣揚(yáng)的“讓美國(guó)重回偉大”。
因此，10年的時(shí)間能做很多事，而且在下一個(gè)10年取得的成就將會(huì)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)去的10年。為什么?因?yàn)椋乱粋€(gè)10年將會(huì)是人工智能的時(shí)代，也是我們常說(shuō)的AI時(shí)代。
作為學(xué)生，你可能已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)與AI相關(guān)的課程的選課人數(shù)在不斷增加，這絕對(duì)是人工智能蓬勃發(fā)展的重要指標(biāo)。
在1980年我第一次初識(shí)人工智能。在以后的這37年里我一直在人工智能這一領(lǐng)域從事研究、開(kāi)發(fā)以及投資等相關(guān)的工作，我可以很確定的說(shuō)，人工智能的革命性影響在規(guī)模上將會(huì)與工業(yè)革命旗鼓相當(dāng)，也有可能它的影響力更為巨大，更加快速。
但是，我所說(shuō)的并不是一個(gè)未來(lái)主義者對(duì)人工智能不切實(shí)際的討論，這是一場(chǎng)工程師與工程師之間的談話。作為工程師，我們知道人工智能是如何運(yùn)作的，我們知道隨著人工智能獲得的數(shù)據(jù)越來(lái)越多，被使用的越來(lái)越多的話，他將會(huì)被迭代的更加完善。我們知道如何去推算、去衡量人工智能在10年后帶來(lái)的影響。
讓我們來(lái)看看，在這個(gè)時(shí)代人工智能能做什么吧。
如今，我正在投資一個(gè)人工智能圖片處理公司，他們可以使人們的自拍變得更加漂亮。據(jù)我所知每一個(gè)中國(guó)的電影明星都決不允許他們?cè)谡掌谖词褂眠@個(gè)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行圖片美化之前就發(fā)布。你能想到這個(gè)產(chǎn)品的基數(shù)有多大?答案是13億。
如今，我在中國(guó)投資的一個(gè)人工智能信貸公司能在數(shù)秒之類(lèi)完成一筆信貸業(yè)務(wù)，并且其壞賬率要遠(yuǎn)低于一名信貸業(yè)務(wù)員需要數(shù)日才能審核完成的貸款申請(qǐng)。這家公司成立不到2年時(shí)1司，但僅僅今年一年的時(shí)間，就能完成大約3千萬(wàn)筆貸款業(yè)務(wù)，遠(yuǎn)超任何一家傳統(tǒng)銀行的數(shù)量。
如今，我正在投資的一家人工智能面部識(shí)別公司，這家公司的產(chǎn)品能夠從3百萬(wàn)張面孔中識(shí)別出任何一張面孔，且其精準(zhǔn)度要遠(yuǎn)超人類(lèi)。假如將這個(gè)產(chǎn)品安裝到全世界的機(jī)場(chǎng)周?chē)湍軌驈母旧献柚挂阎目植婪肿踊蛘吣切┰噲D犯罪的人進(jìn)入任何一架民航客機(jī)里。
以上這三家人工智能公司的總價(jià)值大約在100億美金，但是這與未來(lái)10年里人工智能所創(chuàng)造的價(jià)值相比僅僅只是一個(gè)零頭而已。
在未來(lái)10年里，所有的金融行業(yè)將會(huì)發(fā)生翻天覆地的變化，因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄軐?huì)代替交易員、銀行職員、會(huì)計(jì)、分析員以及保險(xiǎn)公司。去年，我通過(guò)人工智能投資算法獲得了比私人理財(cái)顧問(wèn)高8倍的收益一這提醒了我，在回家之后我就可以將私人理財(cái)顧問(wèn)給辭退了。
在下一個(gè)10年里，人工智能將可以替代大多數(shù)工廠里的員工、分析師、顧問(wèn)以及中介。但是，人工智能也不會(huì)只是局限于簡(jiǎn)單的工作，人工智能也能替代很多新聞?dòng)浾撸t(yī)生以及老師。你的私人人工智能助理將會(huì)比你更加了解自己，諸如你今晚想吃什么，在這個(gè)假期里你應(yīng)該去哪里度假，基至你應(yīng)該和誰(shuí)去約會(huì)。
但是，這不會(huì)就是人工智能的終點(diǎn)。在10年以后，機(jī)械化的人仁智能將會(huì)變得更加穩(wěn)定可靠，人工智能在汽車(chē)駕駛方面將會(huì)比人類(lèi)駕駛更加安全。即使現(xiàn)在還是很初級(jí)的Roomba在未來(lái)也會(huì)讓我們刮目相看，他將學(xué)會(huì)做飯，洗衣服，做清潔及為人類(lèi)分擔(dān)所有繁重的家務(wù)。
在10年以后，人類(lèi)將會(huì)進(jìn)入一個(gè)仁足的時(shí)代，因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄芸梢詭椭祟?lèi)創(chuàng)造巨大的價(jià)值，能極大的助我們消除貧窮及饑餓，而且我們也能通過(guò)人工智能獲得更多的閑暇及自由，去做我們喜歡做的事情。
在10年以后，人類(lèi)會(huì)進(jìn)入一個(gè)迷惘且精神焦慮的時(shí)代，因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄軙?huì)取代人類(lèi)一半的工作，很多人因?yàn)槭I(yè)、得不到自我而變得失落。到那時(shí)，你們很多人都會(huì)為人父母，你們也必須想辦法如何去提高孩子們的教育，以避免你們的孩子將會(huì)被人工智能所取代。
以上預(yù)測(cè)并不是基于人類(lèi)所擁有的神經(jīng)元數(shù)量與人工智能仿真所擁有的神經(jīng)元數(shù)量之間的對(duì)比。相反，我的預(yù)測(cè)是一個(gè)工程師根據(jù)已知的算法、真實(shí)的市場(chǎng)供需情況及勞動(dòng)市場(chǎng)得到的推論。
在創(chuàng)新工場(chǎng)，我們已經(jīng)募得了超過(guò)10億美金的人工智能研究投資資金。日本軟銀更是啟動(dòng)了一個(gè)1000億美金的愿景基金。包括IBM、微軟、谷歌、臉書(shū)過(guò)去50年里的科技巨頭紛紛宣稱(chēng)他們是人工智能公司。因此，即便你今天會(huì)對(duì)我所說(shuō)的產(chǎn)生懷疑，但是你大概不會(huì)懷疑所有這些科技巨頭吧。
所以，對(duì)于你們這些站在科技前沿，絕頂聰明的工程師們，2027年將會(huì)是屬于你們生命當(dāng)中最為美好的時(shí)光。假如你們錯(cuò)過(guò)了這場(chǎng)人工智能的革命，未來(lái)你們可能落入人生的低谷。
那么，如何才能不至于錯(cuò)過(guò)這個(gè)人工智能時(shí)代，確保你能走向人生的巔峰呢?在此，我給大家三個(gè)建議。
首先要擁抱人工智能，調(diào)整你的職業(yè)方向，押注人工智能的必然性。就像所的重大變革一樣，人工智能需要你有一個(gè)開(kāi)放的心態(tài)，對(duì)于變革過(guò)程中所產(chǎn)生的恐懼絕對(duì)再正常不過(guò)。正如馬克吐溫曾說(shuō)：“勇氣是用來(lái)抵抗恐懼并掌控，并不是用來(lái)消除恐懼”。
你過(guò)去的努力已經(jīng)為你在面對(duì)、欣然接納或者熱情擁抱未來(lái)的變化時(shí)做好的了備，這些改變將會(huì)推動(dòng)你找到人生的方向。就考慮未來(lái)而言，你必須熱情的擁抱人工智能，即便現(xiàn)在你所在的領(lǐng)域里你所遇到的人工智能工具是如此的脆弱，在數(shù)據(jù)的支撐之下它一定會(huì)變得更加強(qiáng)大。
上面我提到的三個(gè)人工智能軟件公司。當(dāng)他們第一次發(fā)布時(shí)真的時(shí)脆弱不堪，自拍軟件反而將人拍的更丑，信貸軟件由于壞賬損失了幾百萬(wàn)元，面部識(shí)別軟件曾在識(shí)別我的時(shí)候錯(cuò)誤的將我認(rèn)為是某脫口秀的明星。但是隨著時(shí)間的推移，更多數(shù)據(jù)的注入，人工智能的自學(xué)程序?qū)?huì)使這些產(chǎn)品取得變得更好至遠(yuǎn)超人類(lèi)。
但是，人工智能不僅僅會(huì)變得更加強(qiáng)大，更重要的的是人工智能不會(huì)感到疲倦，沒(méi)有情緒，不會(huì)罷工，他們還具有無(wú)限擴(kuò)展的能力。
隨著硬件、軟件以及網(wǎng)絡(luò)費(fèi)用的降低，所有這些的支出將只有電費(fèi)了。
因此，無(wú)論你選擇在哪個(gè)領(lǐng)域深耕，首先要使用人工智能工具。如果你是一名軟件工程師，使用人工智能工具來(lái)檢查和優(yōu)化你的代碼，去尋找能夠重復(fù)利用的代碼，葚至是寫(xiě)入新的代碼。在組建團(tuán)隊(duì)時(shí)，可以借助人工智能工具來(lái)招聘人員，如果你是自己開(kāi)公司，你可以使用人工智能工具來(lái)管理訂單并使利潤(rùn)最大化。使用人工智能工具來(lái)做客服以及你的銷(xiāo)售人員。使用機(jī)器人生產(chǎn)商品，使用自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)來(lái)配送商品。
人類(lèi)與人工智能的組合將會(huì)是1+l-3的效果。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，當(dāng)一個(gè)醫(yī)生能正確的診斷癌癥，并且能在100個(gè)人當(dāng)中挽救70人的生命，一個(gè)早期的人工智能工具能
挽救100人中60人的生命，那么當(dāng)他們組合到一起或許能挽救80人的生命。隨著人工智能工具不斷發(fā)展能挽救80人的生命時(shí)，那么人類(lèi)與人工智能的結(jié)合或許能挽救90人的生命。因此，不要被動(dòng)的接受人工智能，而是要主動(dòng)擁抱入工智能，挖掘人工智能的潛力，去尋找每二種人工智能為你創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的可能性。學(xué)習(xí)人工智能，去找尋更加智慧的辦法來(lái)構(gòu)建人工智能與人類(lèi)的共生關(guān)系。要像第個(gè)使用文字處理軟件的記者，要像第一個(gè)使用數(shù)字表格的會(huì)計(jì)師，第二個(gè)使用Photoshop的攝影師一樣，你們終會(huì)從人工智能身上獲得收益。另外，相比傳統(tǒng)工具，人工智能工具的發(fā)展更加迅速，應(yīng)用范圍更加廣泛，只有學(xué)會(huì)使用，你的優(yōu)勢(shì)才會(huì)增長(zhǎng)更快并越來(lái)越穩(wěn)固。
我的第二個(gè)建議是：作為工程師你要提高自身的責(zé)任感。
我們都知道，幾個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)醫(yī)生都在踐行Hippocratic誓言，擔(dān)負(fù)看神圣的救死扶傷的重大使命。在人工智能時(shí)代，相比醫(yī)生的使命我認(rèn)為工程師們需要承擔(dān)的使命有過(guò)之而不及。
為什么這么說(shuō)?因?yàn)樽鳛轫敿鈱W(xué)府的畢業(yè)生，身處人工智能時(shí)代，你們擁有巨大力量。但是請(qǐng)不要忘記了這個(gè)世界上最偉大的哲學(xué)家一蜘蛛俠的名言：“權(quán)利越大，責(zé)任越重”。
在人工智能時(shí)代，自主或者半自主的算法可以用來(lái)投資、照看兒童，汽車(chē)駕駛切及做手術(shù)。你們將會(huì)成為創(chuàng)造這些產(chǎn)品的一份子，這些產(chǎn)品將會(huì)影響人們的財(cái)產(chǎn)、健康或者是生命。
當(dāng)然，作為工程師，我們不能丟棄我們的良心以及責(zé)任意識(shí)、我們需要更加純粹的人格，更加勤奮以及遵守道德，這不僅僅是插在軟件架構(gòu)或者代碼編寫(xiě)上，更重要的是在設(shè)計(jì)、測(cè)試、訓(xùn)練機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)模型以及下戲更新配置參數(shù)上。
第二代安全氣囊挽救了許多人的生命，但是也由于它們?cè)谠O(shè)計(jì)以及使用說(shuō)明上沒(méi)有充分考慮兒重的嬌小身軀，也意外的讓一些兒童失去了生命，因此，你的首要責(zé)任是要對(duì)用戶負(fù)責(zé)，要確保你的產(chǎn)品絕對(duì)安全，考慮周全并是有用的。而且相比產(chǎn)品安全，你也絕對(duì)有責(zé)任去預(yù)防和阻止?jié)撛诘募夹g(shù)失控給用戶帶來(lái)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此，請(qǐng)大聲的說(shuō)對(duì)“自動(dòng)殺人武器”，或者"用戶隱私數(shù)據(jù)交易"說(shuō)不。
其次，你要對(duì)你自己負(fù)責(zé)。在人工智能時(shí)代你不僅僅是與別人競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，你同時(shí)也在和人工智能在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。你有責(zé)任去攻克疑難問(wèn)題，而且要避免在機(jī)器就能夠替代做到的事情上浪費(fèi)時(shí)間。不要將你的天賦浪費(fèi)在你在學(xué)校里就已經(jīng)學(xué)到的知識(shí)上，不要輕易接受一項(xiàng)沒(méi)有挑戰(zhàn)的工作，無(wú)論身在哪一個(gè)領(lǐng)域一定要敢于冒險(xiǎn)、勤于學(xué)習(xí)并嚴(yán)格要求自己，只有這樣你才能成為最為獨(dú)特及最有用的人。要堅(jiān)持創(chuàng)造及創(chuàng)新，人工智能的偉大在于優(yōu)化，但是人工智能并不善于發(fā)明新的東西。
作為工程師的你，最后的一份責(zé)任就是，要用你們的選擇去努力使這個(gè)世界變得更加美好。選擇去拯救生命而不是摧毀生命；選擇去激勵(lì)他人，而不是打擊他們；選擇去更有同情心而非貪婪的組織，選擇為心懷世界和平而非妄圖主宰世界的雇主工作。
我的最后一個(gè)建議就是：要追隨你的內(nèi)心。
在談?wù)摿诉@么多嚴(yán)肅的技術(shù)性話題以后，接下來(lái)我想談?wù)摰幕蛟S有一點(diǎn)不合時(shí)宜但是這絕對(duì)是我的肺腑之言。
4年前，我被診斷出換上4期淋巴癌，我當(dāng)時(shí)面對(duì)著一個(gè)無(wú)情的現(xiàn)實(shí)，我的生命可能只剩下短短的幾個(gè)月。
在這段前途未卜的時(shí)間里，我對(duì)生命思考良多，我最終意識(shí)到，我所有的成就，以及這個(gè)在等待30年之后才到來(lái)的人工智能時(shí)代對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)沒(méi)有了任何的意義。我也意識(shí)到我所追求的技術(shù)、產(chǎn)品、投資以及職業(yè)生涯，所有我重視的東西都出現(xiàn)了本末倒置。我忽視了我的家庭，我爸爸已經(jīng)離開(kāi)人世，而我的媽媽已經(jīng)不能記得我是誰(shuí)，我的孩子都己長(zhǎng)大成人。
在我患病治療期間，我讀了Bronnie Ware寫(xiě)的二本書(shū)，這本書(shū)里記錄了臨終病人一生當(dāng)中最為懊悔的事情。她說(shuō)沒(méi)有人會(huì)為年輕時(shí)不夠努力工作，沒(méi)有花更多時(shí)間在辦公室里加班，或者擁有更多財(cái)產(chǎn)而感到懊悔，人們臨終時(shí)最欣慰的是他們已經(jīng)花了更多的時(shí)間陪伴、分享了更多的愛(ài)給所愛(ài)之人。
幸運(yùn)的是，我現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)康復(fù)了，因此我能站在這里和大家交談。如今我會(huì)找更多的時(shí)間陪伴家人，我住的離我的母親更近，無(wú)論是因?yàn)楣ぷ鬟€是私人旅行，我會(huì)和我的太太一起去旅行。
我也會(huì)拿出更多的時(shí)間去聯(lián)系更多的人，在周末時(shí)我會(huì)和朋友們一起去旅行，我?guī)ьI(lǐng)公司的員工去硅谷進(jìn)行為期二周的假期，我去約見(jiàn)那些在facebook上給我提問(wèn)的年輕人，我去聯(lián)系多年之前我多有冒犯的人，請(qǐng)求他們的諒解并建立友誼我寫(xiě)了一本、拍攝紀(jì)錄片來(lái)分享在我與死神擦肩而過(guò)的的經(jīng)歷當(dāng)中所學(xué)到的一切。
與死神擦肩而過(guò)的經(jīng)歷，不僅改變了我的生活也改變了我的價(jià)值觀，這也讓我對(duì)于人工智能對(duì)人類(lèi)的意義有了日常清晰的認(rèn)識(shí)。埃隆馬斯克以及斯蒂芬霍金就已經(jīng)給我們這種觀點(diǎn)，他們認(rèn)為機(jī)器將可以全面取代人類(lèi)，而人類(lèi)要么是控制AI，要不就是成為AI。
這段與死神擦肩而過(guò)的經(jīng)歷，讓我對(duì)人工智能的未來(lái)有了另一種預(yù)測(cè)。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，人工智能將會(huì)在某些分析型工作上憑借精準(zhǔn)酌決策和成果打敗人類(lèi)，但是并不是這些工作讓人類(lèi)如這般模樣，我們之所以能成為人類(lèi)，是因?yàn)槲覀儞碛袗?ài)的能力。
當(dāng)我們注視著新生的寶寶時(shí)，當(dāng)我們?cè)谝灰?jiàn)鐘情陷入愛(ài)河時(shí)，當(dāng)朋友富有同情的傾聽(tīng)我們的時(shí)，當(dāng)我們因?yàn)閹椭鷦e人而實(shí)現(xiàn)自我時(shí)，所有的這一切都向我們表明我們還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不能了解人類(lèi)的內(nèi)心，更不要說(shuō)要去復(fù)制入內(nèi)心的信息。但是，我們知道愛(ài)和被愛(ài)的能力是我們?nèi)祟?lèi)所獨(dú)有的，人們渴望愛(ài)與被愛(ài)，也正是因?yàn)閻?ài)與被愛(ài)才會(huì)讓我們的生命更有意義。
有了如此信念，我們知道了我們?cè)撊プ鍪裁础Ｗ钇鸫a，我們要認(rèn)識(shí)到我們是被愛(ài)著的，并且要感恩我們被愛(ài)的事實(shí)。假如，我們?cè)诨貓?bào)愛(ài)的過(guò)程中做得更好，或者給別人回饋了更多的愛(ài)，最終我們會(huì)達(dá)到愛(ài)的最高境界。
好吧，讓我們重新回到AI這個(gè)話題，是愛(ài)將人類(lèi)與人工智能區(qū)分開(kāi)來(lái)，拋開(kāi)那些科幻小說(shuō)里刻畫(huà)的，我可以很負(fù)責(zé)任的告訴你人工智能不具有愛(ài)的能力，他們荏至沒(méi)有感覺(jué)活著是自我意識(shí)。阿爾法狗也許能夠戰(zhàn)勝世界冠軍，但是他們?cè)谕孢@個(gè)游戲時(shí)無(wú)法感受快樂(lè)，無(wú)法以為勝利而高興，也不會(huì)在勝利之后去擁抱所愛(ài)之入。
在未來(lái)，即便人工智能診斷工具能做到10倍于醫(yī)生的精確程度，病患也不希望只是從診斷工具哪里獲得諸如。你得了4期淋巴癌，你有70%的概率活不過(guò)5年。這樣一種冷冰冰的診斷結(jié)果。病患需要二個(gè)充滿愛(ài)的醫(yī)生去聆聽(tīng)患者的抱怨，給與患者以信心。就像他會(huì)說(shuō)：“李開(kāi)復(fù)曾經(jīng)也得了和你一樣的病，但是他活過(guò)來(lái)了，我相信你也能做到”，醫(yī)生也可以定期來(lái)家里給病人會(huì)診，我么也能隨時(shí)和醫(yī)生溝通。這種充滿愛(ài)的醫(yī)生不僅會(huì)讓我們感到舒坦，給我們更大信心，同時(shí)這種安慰劑效應(yīng)的確可能會(huì)提高病患的康復(fù)機(jī)會(huì)。
這樣也會(huì)解決我們之前提到的因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄軒?lái)的失業(yè)問(wèn)題，這種。關(guān)愛(ài)型醫(yī)生。的數(shù)量將會(huì)遠(yuǎn)超現(xiàn)有醫(yī)生的數(shù)量。那些失業(yè)的人可以致力于需要傳播關(guān)愛(ài)以及分享經(jīng)驗(yàn)的行業(yè)···例如做一名熱情洋溢的導(dǎo)游，充滿關(guān)愛(ài)的禮賓人員，一個(gè)搞笑的調(diào)酒師，個(gè)極具感染力的壽司廚師。至此伴隨著各類(lèi)擁有。關(guān)愛(ài)專(zhuān)家。頭銜的人才輩出，也將會(huì)創(chuàng)造各種新興的服務(wù)業(yè)出現(xiàn)。或許這種工作并不是真正意義上的工作，他們可能是孤兒院或養(yǎng)老院的志愿者，這些崗位將會(huì)為人類(lèi)提供工作，并且這些工作是人工智能無(wú)法取代的。這些工作不僅能給人們帶來(lái)強(qiáng)烈的自豪感和滿足感，更重要的是，這將會(huì)給我們這個(gè)星球帶來(lái)愛(ài)和歡樂(lè)。
我們已經(jīng)建立了許多以任務(wù)為導(dǎo)向的人工智能工具，而且他們?cè)谶@些方面確實(shí)要優(yōu)于人腦。這正是我37年的前的夢(mèng)想，作為一個(gè)計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)家，我為我們能走到今天這一步而感到自豪。但是，我似乎也意識(shí)到，也許我追逐的方向是錯(cuò)的，因?yàn)閷?duì)于人類(lèi)來(lái)說(shuō)最重要的器官不是大腦而是心靈。
這對(duì)于我來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)教訓(xùn)，我也承認(rèn)，我是花了如此長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間才認(rèn)識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)。因此，我對(duì)你們的期望是隨著你們事業(yè)之花愈發(fā)芬芳，人生變得更加完善的時(shí)候，在實(shí)現(xiàn)人生目標(biāo)時(shí)不僅要用到你們聰明的大腦，但更為重要的是要遵從自己的內(nèi)心。
肩負(fù)未來(lái)，勇敢向前。但是我有信心，只要你能遵從內(nèi)心，你就能順利穿過(guò)充滿荊除的前方，在此之上，用未來(lái)的10年時(shí)間成就最美好的你!
結(jié)束
Thank you, Class of 2017. Thank you so much for inviting me to speak at this wonderful commencement ceremony. It’s an honor to be back at Columbia to address this distinguished group of graduates, parents, siblings and special guests. We’ve all gathered to share in the joy of this day.
First, I want to say to you graduates: I am so proud of all of you. You did it! Your families are proud of you. You have earned this day.
I remember sitting where you are 34 years ago, feeling that these were the best years of my life. I found the profession of my life: artificial intelligence. I found the hobby of my life -- bridge; I played 30 hours a week, but to this date Columbia still wouldn’t give me a degree in it. And I had my first date while at Columbia, and she became the love of my life. And finally, on commencement day, I got to sit and listen to Isaac Asimov, the famous science fiction writer. I’m sorry that you only get m
Anyway, I had the best years of my life. This is where you expect me, or any commencement speaker to say, “These are the best years of your lives.” But I am not going to say that.
I know that these are far from the best years of your lives. I know that your best days are yet to come. To be specific, my hope for you is that the next 10 years will be the best years in your lives.
Why 10 years? 10 years seem so far away. But really it is not. Checking in with May 2007 seems like a good way to visualize what 10 years can do in our world.
It is interesting to remember that in 2007, Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone. Back then, I was still using my Blackberry, and my wife was still using her Nokia.
And in 2007, a young senator Barack Obama, decided to run for President. And back in 2007, Donald Trump was still saying, “You are fired” rather than “Make America Great Again.”
So 10 years can do a lot, but the next 10 will do much much more than the last 10. Why? Because, the next decade will be the Age of Artificial Intelligence, or AI.
As students, you’ve probably seen AI course enrollment go from 80 to 800. And that certainly is one leading indicator.
I was introduced to AI at Columbia in 1980. As someone who has worked for 37 years on research, development, and investment in AI, I can speak with some authority that – AI will be a revolution on the scale of the Industrial Revolution, probably larger, and definitely faster.
But this is not a hand-wavy futurist AI talk. This is an engineer-to-engineer talk. We know that AI works. We know that AI gets better with more data and more use. We know how to extrapolate it to measure its impact in ten years.
Let’s first see what AI can do today.
Today, an AI image processing company that I invested in can make people’s selfies more beautiful, so much so that every Chinese movie star I know doesn’t allow her photo to be published without it. Its user base? 1.3 billion.
Today, an AI loan company that I invested in China can approve a loan in seconds, with a default rate much lower than a human loan officer who would takes days. This company is less than two years old, but will underwrite almost 30 million loans this year, more than almost any bank.
Today, an AI facial recognition company that I invested in can recognize any face from 3 million faces, with super-human accuracy. If installed in all the airports around the world, it would essentially prevent known terrorists or wanted criminals from entering any airplane.
These three AI companies are worth a total of about $10 billion. But that’s loose change compared to what can be built in the next 10 years.
In the next 10 years, all financial companies will be turned upside-down, with AI replacing traders, bankers, accountants, research analysts, and insurance companies. Last year, my AI investment algorithm returned 8 times more than my private banker. That reminds me – when I go home I am going to fire my private banker.
In the next 10 years, AI will replace most factory workers, assistants, advisors, and middlemen. But AI is not limited to simple jobs. AI will also replace many reporters, doctors, and teachers. Your AI assistant will know better than you what you would like to eat tonight, where you should go on vacation, and whom you should date.
But it doesn’t stop there. In 10 years, mechanical AI will become reliable. AI will be safer at driving cars than people, sweeping changes, as it were, brought by the lowly Roomba…. will grow up and cook, wash, clean and handle all the household drudgery for us.
In 10 years, because AI will make so much money for humanity, we will enter the Age of Plenty, making strides to eradicate poverty and hunger, and giving all of us more spare time and freedom to do what we love.
In 10 years, because AI will replace half of human jobs, we will enter the Age of Confusion, and many people will become depressed as they lose the jobs and the corresponding self-actualization. And many of you will become parents concerned with how to improve education in order to prevent your children from being replaced by AI.
These predictions are not based on some hand-wavy comparison of the number of neurons possessed by humans and AI simulators. Rather, they are based on an engineer’s extrapolation based on known algorithms, and the real marketplace and workforce.
In my company, we have raised over $1 billion to invest in these developments. Softbank has launched a $100 billion Vision Fund. The tech giants of the past 50 years – IBM, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, have all declared themselves to be AI companies. So even if you doubt me, you probably should not doubt all of them.
So, for leading edge, super smart engineers like yourselves, 2027 should be the best of times in your lives. Unless you miss the AI revolution, in which case it may turn into the worst times in your lives.
Now let me give you three pieces of advice – how not to miss the Age of AI, so that you can have the time of your life.
My first is: Embrace AI, and align your career by betting on its inevitability.
Like all big change, AI requires you to have an open mind. It’s OK to be fearful of change.
As Mark Twain explained, “Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear. Not absence of fear.”
Your hard work has prepared you to confront, or simply accept, or warmly embrace - change that will push you in new directions.
Given what lies ahead, you must warmly embrace AI. While the first AI tools in your industry may appear fragile, be assured they will get better with data.
The three software companies I mentioned earlier, when they were first launched: often made people uglier, lost millions in bad loans, and thought I was some talk show celebrity. But given time and much more data, their self-learning made them dramatically better than people. Not only are they better, they don’t get tired nor emotional. They don’t go on strike, and they are infinitely scalable.
With hardware, software, and networking costs coming down, all they cost is electricity.
So whatever domain you choose, be the first to use AI tools. If you’re a software engineer, use AI tools to check and optimize your code, to find re-usable code, or even to write new code. Use AI tools to hire and build your team. If you start your own company, use AI tools to manage your books and maximize your profits. Use AI tools to replace your customer support and your salespeople. Use robots to produce your goods and autonomous vehicles to deliver them.
The symbiotic combination of humans and AI is all about 1+1=3. For example, when a doctor can correctly diagnose cancer, and save 70 lives out of 100, and an early AI tool can save 60 lives out of 100 -- together perhaps they can save 80 lives. And when the AI tool improves to saving 80 lives, perhaps together they can save 90. So do not passively accept AI, but embrace AI, seek out AI, and find every which way that AI can help you. Learn AI, and find clever ways to build that symbiotic relationship earlier. Just like the reporter who first found word processing, the accountant who first used a spreadsheet, the first photographer who applied Photoshop, you will have an edge. In addition, AI will evolve faster and more broadly than these tools, and your edge will grow and become sustainable.
My second piece of advice is: Uphold your responsibility as an engineer.
We all know that for centuries physicians took the Hippocratic Oath, as a responsibility to treat human life as sacred. In the age of AI, I think engineers’ responsibilities are equally sacred, or even greater.
Why? Because as top engineering graduates from a top school, during the Age of AI, you are the ones with the power. But please remember what the world’s greatest philosopher, Spiderman, said: "with great power comes great responsibility."
In the Age of AI, autonomous and semi-autonomous algorithms will invest money, take care of children, drive cars, and conduct surgery. You will be the ones who build these products, which will impact people’s possessions, health, and even lives.
As engineers, we cannot abandon our conscience and sense of responsibility. We need to be thorough, diligent, and ethical, not just in the architecture and coding, but also in the design, in the testing, in running the machine learning training, and in downloading the updated parameters.
The first airbags saved many lives, but they also accidentally killed some children, due to the lack of adequate design and instructions that adequately considered children’s smaller size.
So your first responsibilities are to your users, to making your product safe, thoughtful, and usable. And more than “product safety.” You also have a responsibility to foresee and prevent the potential risks of technology to users from getting out of hand. So please speak up strongly against “autonomous weapons” or “bartering or sales of privacy data.”
Your second responsibility is to yourself. In the Age of AI, you are not just competing with other people, but also with AI. You have a responsibility to work on the hard problems, and avoid wasting your time doing what machines will be able to do. Don’t waste your talent repeating what you learned at school. Don’t accept a job that doesn’t challenge you. Take risks and learn vigorously and rigorously so that you can become the best in something specific and useful, whatever your field. Be creative and inventive. AI is great at optimizing, but AI cannot invent something new.
Your final responsibility is to make the world a better place with your choices as an engineer. Choose jobs that save lives, not destroy them. Choose jobs that empower people, not demoralize them. Work for organizations with more compassion than greed, and for people who care more about world peace than world domination.
And my last advice: Be in touch with your heart.
After all that serious tech talk, what I am going to talk about next may seem a little bit out-of place. But it comes from my heart.
Four years ago, I was diagnosed with 4th stage lymphoma. I faced the real possibility that my remaining time here was measured in months.
During that time of ultimate uncertainty, I thought a lot about my life. I came to realize that my accomplishments, and even the arrival of AI after waiting 30 years meant nothing to me.
I came to realize that by chasing these technologies, products, investments, and my career, my priorities were out-of-order. I neglected my family. My father had passed away. My mother barely remembered me. My kids had grown up.
One of the books I read during my illness was Bronnie Ware’s book about the regrets of people on their deathbeds. She found that no one wished they’d worked harder or spent more time at the office or accumulated more possessions. People’s top wish was that they had spent more time, sharing their love of their loved ones.
Fortunately, I am now in remission so I am here with you today. I am spending much more time with my family. I moved closer to my mother. I travel with my wife, whether on business or for pleasure. When my kids come home, I would take not two or three days off from work, but two or three weeks.
I also spent more time meaningfully connecting with more people. I spent weekends traveling with my best friends. I took my company on a one-week vacation to Silicon Valley -- their Mecca. I met with young people who sent me questions on Facebook. I reached out to people I offended years ago and asked for their forgiveness and friendship. I wrote a book and shot a documentary to share what I had learned from my near-death experience.
My near-death experience not only changed my life and my values, it gave me an enlightened view about what AI should mean for humanity. Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking have given us their view, a view where machines supersede humans completely, and we are to control them or become them.
With my near-death experience, I would like to offer an alternate ending to their prediction of the AI future. Surely AI has, or will beat us on many analytical tasks with definitive decisions and outcomes. But these tasks are not what make us human. What makes us human is that we are able to love.
The moment when we see our new-born babies; the feeling of love-at-first-sight; the warm feeling from friends who listen to us empathetically; the feeling of self-actualization when we help someone in need. Or if you want empirical proof, the fact that the placebo effect works. These all demonstrate that we are far from understanding the human “heart”, let alone replicating it. But we do know that humans uniquely are able to love and be loved. Humans want to love and be loved. That loving and being loved are what makes our lives worthwhile.
With this belief, we now know what we must do. At a minimum, recognize and be thankful that we are loved. If we can do better, return the love, and maybe a little bit more. Finally, the highest level of love: Pay it forward. Give love unconditionally.
Coming back to our AI theme, love differentiates us from AI. Despite what science fiction movies may portray, I can tell you responsibly that AI programs cannot love. They don’t even have feelings or self-consciousness. AlphaGo may beat the world champion, but it has no fun playing the game, feels no happiness from winning, has no desire to hug a loved one after it wins.
And in the future, even if an AI diagnostic tool is 10 times more accurate than doctors, patients will not want a cold pronouncement from the tool: “you have 4th stage lymphoma and a 70% likelihood of dying within 5 years.” Patients will want a “doctor of love” who listens to our complaints, gives us encouragement, like “Kai-Fu had the same lymphoma, and he survived, so you can too”, and perhaps visits us at home, and is always available to talk to us. This kind of “doctor of love” will not only make us feel better, and have greater confidence, but a placebo effect will kick in and increase our likelihood of recuperation.
This will solve the AI employment problem we mentioned earlier. The number of “doctors of love” will outnumber today’s doctors. The displaced workers can take up careers spreading love and experiences – whether a passionate tour guide, an attentive concierge, a funny bartender, an infectious sushi chef. With the new “experts of love” titles many new kind of service jobs will be created. And they don’t have to be “jobs”, they can be volunteers, at an orphanage or a retirement home. This will give people jobs that AI cannot take away. They will do the job with pride and a strong sense of self-actualization. Most importantly, this will fill our planet with love and joy.
We’ve built many task-oriented AI that is much better than our brains. That was my dream 37 years ago. As a hard-core computer scientist, I’m proud that we’ve come so far. But now I realize that I went after the wrong organ. The most important part of the human body is not the brain, but the heart.
That’s a lesson that took me, I confess, too long to learn. My hope for all of you, as your careers blossom and your lives take shape, is that you will approach your lives with all the brains you certainly have, but also, above all, with all the heart you can muster.
It will be up to you to carry this forward, but I have confidence: if you let your heart be your guide, you’ll find your way through all of the massive changes that lie ahead, and make the next 10 years the best years of your lives.
Thank you, Class of 2017.
The End
