本文原載于 《The Economist》?

譯者：鄧小雪 & 高浦銘 & 沈園園?

校對：伍豪

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IN A classroom in Seoul a throng of teenagers sit hunched over their desks. In total silence, they flick through a past exam paper. Stacks of brightly coloured textbooks are close to hand. Study begins at 8am and ends at 4.30pm, but some will not go home until 10pm. Like hundreds of thousands of South Koreans, they are preparing for the suneung, the multiple-choice test that will largely determine whether they go to a good university or a bad one, or to university at all.

在首爾的一間教室里，一群青少年窩在課桌前，在一片沉默中翻閱著一張發下來的考卷，手邊還堆著一摞用彩筆標出重點的教材。學習時間是從早上8點到下午4點半，但有些人直到晚上10點才回家。和成千上萬韓國人一樣，他們在準備suneung，即韓國高考——這個選擇題為主的考試將很大程度上決定他們能否上大學，以及能否上個好大學。

Suneung 大學修學能力試驗。大學修學能力試驗，又叫韓國高考或南韓高考，是南韓每年一度的學業水平測試，題型大多為客觀題。1994年正式公開化，考試在每年11月第二或第三個禮拜四舉行。

Over the course of a single generation in South Korea, degrees have become close to ubiquitous. Seventy per cent of pupils who graduate from the country’s secondary schools now go straight to university, and a similar share of 25- to 34-year-olds hold degrees, up from 37% in 2000. Students scramble to gain admittance to the most prestigious institutions, with exam preparation starting ever younger. Sought-after private nurseries in Seoul have long waiting lists.

僅僅過了一代人，學歷的重要性就已經成為韓國人的共識。如今70%的中學畢業生直接進入大學。2000年時，25-34歲年齡段中擁有本科學歷的人只占37%，而現在占比也已將近70%。學生們為了進入最知名的學府擠破腦袋，開始準備考試的時間也越來越早。首爾人排著長隊希望能把孩子送入受歡迎的托兒所。

South Korea is an extreme case. But other countries, too, have seen a big rise in the share of young people with degrees. In the OECD club of 35 countries, 43% of 25- to 34-year-olds now have degrees. In America the figure is 48%.

韓國的例子比較極端。但在其他國家，年輕人擁有本科學歷的比例也有很大提升。經合組織35個成員國中，25-34歲年齡段中有43%擁有本科學歷，而美國這一比例則達到48%。

Between 1995 and 2014 government spending on higher education in the OECD rose from 0.9% of GDP to 1.1%, while private spending rose from 1.2% to 1.5%. As government subsidies for tuition fees flow through to institutions they have helped inflate costs. Since 1990 fees for American students who do not get scholarships or bursaries have risen twice as fast as overall inflation.

在1995至2014年期間，經合組織成員國政府在高等教育上的支出從0.9%上升至1.1%，同時個人支出從1.2%上升至1.5%。政府補貼的學費進入大學機構，也推升了教育成本。自1990年以來，對于沒有取得獎學金或助學金的美國學生，他們的學費比平均通脹率增加了兩倍。

bursary noun /?b??s?ri/an amount of money that is given to somebody so that they can study, usually at a college or university 助學金（在英國，bursary指的是助學金，一般來自發展中國家，或其他能拿出經濟證明家庭狀況不大理想者，都可以申請。而scholarship則是真正的獎學金，需要學術成績優異，加上本身是有開設xx scholarship給予中國學生的，才能申請。）

Policymakers regard it as obvious that sending more young people to university will boost economic growth and social mobility. Both notions are intuitively appealing. Better-educated people should surely be more likely to come up with productivity-boosting innovations. As technological change makes new demands of workers, it seems plausible that more will need to be well-educated. And a degree is an obvious way for bright youngsters from poor families to prove their abilities.

決策者認為，越多年輕人進入大學，就越有利于經濟和社會流動性的增長。這兩個觀點乍看之下很有道理。人們受教育越高，就越有可能做出創新提高生產效率。當技術升級需要新的工人時，人們的教育程度貌似也應該隨之提高。對于貧困家庭出身的年輕人來說，學歷是能夠證明自身能力的一個直接表現。

But comparisons between countries provide little evidence of these links. Richer countries have more graduates, but that could be because there is more money to spare, and less urgency to start earning. Rich economies grow more slowly, but that is probably because they have fewer easy ways to raise productivity, not because education depresses their growth.

然而，通過不同國家的對比，兩者之間的聯系缺乏依據。發達國家有更多大學畢業生，可能是因為人們手頭富裕，所以畢業之后馬上開始掙錢的緊迫性不強。發達經濟體增長緩慢，可能是因為生產率已經處于高位，進一步提升越來越困難，而不是因為教育阻礙了經濟增長。

A truth universities acknowledged

大學不得不承認的真相

The main piece of evidence cited by policymakers is the “graduate premium”—the difference between the average earnings of someone with a degree and someone with no more than a secondary-school education, after accounting for fees and the income forgone while studying. This gap is often expressed as the “return on investment” in higher education, or the annualised boost to lifetime earnings from gaining a degree. Research by the New York Federal Reserve shows that the return on investment in higher education soared between 1980 and 2000 in America, before levelling off at around 15% a year. In other words, an investment equal to the cost of tuition and earnings forgone while studying would have to earn 15% annual interest before it matched the average value over a working life of gaining a degree.

決策者最常用的一個論據就是“畢業生增值”——在計算過教育費用和因上學而損失的收入之后，比較大學及以上學歷和中學以下學歷人群之間的平均收入差異。這一差異經常被用來表示高等教育的“投資回報率”，或自取得學歷之后終生收入的年度增長。紐約聯儲的研究報告表示，美國高等教育的年投資回報率在1980年至2000年期間飆升，然后穩定在15%左右。換句話說，如果把大學教育看作一項投資，學費及因上學損失收入之和為投資本金，那么這一投資在工作中帶來的年均收益將達15%。

The World Bank has produced estimates of this return for 139 economies. It varies from place to place, but is substantial everywhere. The Economist’s analysis of the data finds that returns are linked to the share of people with degrees, and the range of earnings. Returns in Britain and Germany are similar to those in America. In sub-Saharan Africa, where degrees are scarce and the least-educated workers earn little, they are around 21% a year. In Scandinavia, where wages are less unequal and two-fifths of adults have degrees, they are around 9%.

世界銀行在評估了139個經濟體后得出了這一收益率。各個地方有所不同，但本質相似?！督洕鷮W人》通過分析數據后發現，收益率與擁有本科學歷的人口占比以及收入水平有關。英國和德國的收益率與美國相近。在撒哈拉以南的非洲，大學學歷稀缺，教育水平越低則掙得越少，所以年收益率能達到約21%。斯堪的納維亞半島由于人們工資差異不大且五分之二的成年人擁有本科學歷，收益率則在9%左右。

But as a guide to school-leavers considering going to university—and to policymakers considering expanding access to higher education—the graduate premium is flawed. Even within countries the average conceals wide differences. Most students know that a degree in mathematics or finance is likely to be more lucrative than one in music or social work. What fewer realise is that the graduate premium overstates the financial benefit of embarking on a degree if their school grades barely qualify them for entry, no matter what they study.

但是對于考慮進入大學深造的高中畢業生和考慮擴大高等教育覆蓋面的政策制定者來說，拿“畢業生增值”（the graduate premium）作為參考指標是有缺陷的。即使僅比較各國內部的狀況，我們都可以發現巨大的差異，但這一差異被統計的平均值掩蓋了。大多數學生都知道擁有一個數學或金融學位比一個音樂或社會工作學位賺錢的機會更大。但很少有人意識到的是，無論什么專業，對于成績只是勉強達到錄取線的學生來說，“畢業生增值”顯然過分夸大了大學學位能夠帶來的經濟收益。

In a comparison of the earnings of people with degrees and people without them, those who start university but do not finish are lumped in with those who never started, even though they, too, will have paid fees and missed out on earnings. Their numbers are considerable. In America 40% of college students fail to graduate with four-year degrees within six years of enrolling. Drop-out rates across the developed world average around 30%. It is the students admitted with the lowest grades who are least likely to graduate.

在一項有學位和沒有學位人的收入情況比較中，那些進了大學卻未能畢業的人，盡管他們支付了學費，學習期間也沒有工作收入，但他們的收入和沒被大學錄取的人差不多。這部分人的數量相當巨大。在美國,40%的大學生未能在入學6年內拿到四年制學位。發達國家的平均輟學率在30%左右。恰恰是那些以最低成績被錄取的人最有可能畢不了業。

Including dropouts when calculating the returns to going to university makes a big difference. In a new book, “The Case Against Education”, Bryan Caplan of George Mason University argues that the low graduation rates of marginal students, and the fact that, for a given level of qualification, cleverer people tend to earn more, mean that the return on a four-year degree in America ranges from 6.5% for excellent students to just 1% for the weakest ones.

計算上大學回報率時把輟學生納入考量會有很大的不同。喬治梅森大學的布萊恩·凱普蘭（Bryan Caplan）在新書《反對教育的案例》（“The Case Against Education”）中認為，由于邊緣學生的低畢業率以及同等條件下聰明的人掙得更多， 美國四年制大學學位的回報率不等，優等生可達6.5%，而差生僅為1%。

Part of that difference is because the weakest students attend the worst universities, where drop-out rates are highest. When they make it into better institutions, the returns may be higher. In a study published in 2014 Seth Zimmerman of the University of Chicago compared the earnings of school-leavers in Florida whose grades were close to the minimum for admission to a good state university. Those just above the cut-off were much more likely than those just below to start courses in good institutions. They graduated at a rate similar to that of the broader student population. They went on to earn considerably more than those just below the cut-off, and their return on investment was substantial.

個中差異部分源于基礎最薄弱的學生進了最差的大學（輟學率最高）。如果他們進入好一點的學?？赡軙@得更高的回報。芝加哥大學的賽斯·齊默爾曼（Seth Zimmerman）2014年發表的一項研究比較了佛羅里達州高中畢業生的收入。這些學生的成績都在優質州立大學錄取分數線上下。比起那些在恰好低于優質州立大學錄取分數線的學生，那些剛過線的學生更有可能在好的大學里學習。他們的畢業率與所錄大學整體畢業率相似。畢業后，他們的工作收入也遠高于那些恰好低于優質州立大學錄取分數線的同學。由此可見，他們“教育投資”的回報非?？捎^。

Overstating the graduate premium is not the only reason policymakers overestimate the wider benefits of increasing the share of young people who go to university. The usual way to calculate the social returns of higher education is to sum up all the graduate premiums and subtract any public subsidies. But degrees are in part a way to access a “positional good” that benefits one person at the expense of another. Part of the premium comes from gaining an advantage over others in the competition for a good job, rather than the acquisition of productivity-boosting skills and knowledge. A complete calculation would include not just gains to graduates, but losses to non-graduates.

除了“畢業生增值”數據的誤導，還有其他因素導致政策制定者高估大學入學率提高的好處。計算高等教育的社會回報率，通常的方法是所有的畢業生工資溢價之和減去公共補貼。但大學學位某種程度上是一種“位置商品”（positional good） ,使一個人受益的同時犧牲了另一個人的利益。部分增值來自于找工作時相對別人的競爭優勢，而不是獲得提高生產力的技能和知識。除了大學畢業生的收益, 完整的計算還應包括非大學畢業生的損失。

Degrees are also signalling devices. The premium includes the income-boosting effects of personal characteristics that are more likely to be held by those with degrees, not because they acquired them at university, but because they possessed them on admission.

大學學位就像一種信號。增值包括由個人特征帶來的收入增長效應，這種特征更可能為大學畢業生所擁有。這往往不是因為他們在大學里獲得了這些特征,而是因為他們擁有這些特征，才能被大學錄取。

As degrees have become more common, their importance as signalling devices is rising. Recruiters, who pay none of the cost of jobseekers’ higher education, are increasingly able to demand degrees in order to screen out the least motivated or competent. A recent study by Joseph Fuller and Manjari Raman of Harvard Business School found that companies routinely require applicants to have degrees, even though only a minority of those already working in the role have them. This increases the graduate premium—but by punishing non-graduates rather than boosting the absolute returns to degrees.

隨著學位日益普及,其作為一種信號的重要性也隨之凸顯。招聘人員雖然沒有為求職者高等教育上的投入花錢,但卻越來越看重學位，以此作為衡量標準將那些缺乏上進心和不具備競爭力的求職者拒之門外。哈佛商學院的約瑟夫·富勒（Joseph Fuller）和孟佳瑞·拉曼（Manjari Raman）最近的一項研究表明,公司要求申請者擁有大學學歷已經成為慣例,即使在職人員中大學畢業的只是少數。這就增加了“畢業生增值”（the graduate premium）——但這是因為非大學畢業生面臨不利，而不是學位的絕對收益增加。

Analysis by The Economist of American census data finds that between 1970 and 2015 the share of workers aged 25-64 with at least a bachelor’s degree increased in 256 out of 265 occupations (see previous page). Some of these are intellectually demanding jobs that changed a lot over that period, such as aerospace engineer or statistician. Others are non-graduate jobs such as waiting tables. Sixteen percent of waiters now have degrees—presumably, in most cases, because they could not find a graduate job. But other jobs that are mostly done by graduates, such as journalism, nursing and teaching in primary schools, used to require only shorter training, often received while working. Today, having a degree is usually an entry requirement.

《經濟學人》的人口普查數據分析顯示，從1970年至2015年，全美265個行業中，有256個行業呈職工學歷上升趨勢——年齡在25至64歲間并且至少擁有本科學歷的從業者越來越多。在這45年間，腦力工作者（比如航天工程師與統計學家）所從事的行業變化顯著。而其他工作，例如服務員，則不要求本科學歷。如今，16%的服務員都有本科學歷，他們中的大多數可能是因為找不到與學歷對應的工作。在過去，記者、護士、小學教師這些職業大多只要求從業者在工作實習中接受短期培訓，便可上崗。但是，現在這些行業的從業人員大多都有本科學歷。學士學位已是當下大多行業的就職門檻。

The Economist has produced a measure of over-education by defining a graduate job as one which was staffed mostly by degree-holders in 1970. We find that just 35% of graduates work in such occupations today, down from 51% 45 years ago. Judging by job titles alone, 26.5m workers in America—two-thirds of those with degrees—are doing work that was mostly done by non-graduates a half-century ago.

如果在1970年，某職業的從業者大部分都擁有本科及以上學歷，那我們就把這個職業定義為 “大學生職業”?，F在我們用“大學生職業”這個指標來衡量教育過度現象，結果發現，45年前有51%的畢業生能找到一份“大學生職業”，但今天僅有35%的畢業生能找到我們之前所定義的“大學生職業”。如今全美有兩千六百五十萬勞動力從事著“非大學生職業”，而其中有三分之二的人擁有大學學歷。

That calculation exaggerates the trend.

數據夸大趨勢

Advances in technology have doubtless made some of these jobs more demanding. But not all of them, at least judging by pay. We find only a weak link between higher shares of graduates in an occupation and higher salaries (see chart 2). For around half of the occupations that employ higher shares of graduates now than a half-century ago, real wages have fallen.?

隨著科技的進步，一些工作的從業要求變得越來越高。但如果用收入水平來衡量一個崗位的“高端程度”，那會發現并非所有的工作崗位都更高端了。我們發現，一份工作的收入水平與從業者的學歷水平僅有微弱的相關性（見圖2）。在近一半的工作崗位中，雖然相比于半個世紀前有越來越多的從業者擁有大學學歷，但實際工資（譯者注：剔除通脹影響后）反而下降了。

Andreas Schleicher, the head of education research at the OECD, reckons that “countries have skills shortages, not degree shortages”. The way universities have come to monopolize higher education, he says, is a problem in part because universities do not suit all kinds of learners. And university dropouts tend to see little in the way of financial benefit from the part of their course that they have finished.

安德利亞斯施萊克爾是經合組織教育研究方面的負責人，他認為，有文憑的人并不稀缺，各國所欠缺的其實是高技能勞動力。他補充說，大學壟斷高等教育會帶來麻煩，這在某種程度上是因為大學教育并非適合于所有人。對于大學肄業生來說，他們很難通過大學時期所修的課程來獲得經濟上的回報。

One promising development is that of “micro-credentials” or “nano-degrees”— short vocational courses, often in computing and IT. Udacity, an online education company, offers a variety, including one in self-driving cars approved by Uber and Mercedes-Benz, and another on digital marketing approved by Facebook and Google. EdX, a collaboration between MIT, Harvard and other leading universities, offers similar courses free. Students can take exams to prove their mastery of the material for a few hundred dollars.

名為“微觀證書”和“微學位”的網課在短期職業培訓領域已取得進展，授課內容主要集中在計算機學與信息技術。優達學城（Udacity）是一家在線教育機構，它的在線課程種類頗多，包括了優步（Uber）與梅賽德斯奔馳（Mercedes-Benz）兩家公司聯手打造的無人駕駛汽車課程，以及臉譜與谷歌共同提供的數字化營銷課。edX是麻省理工、哈佛與其他頂尖大學共同創建的教育平臺，它提供類似的免費課程。學生可以花幾百美元來參加考試，以證明他們在某一領域具有扎實的功底。

Boot campus?

大學不再是“香餑餑”

For now, such courses are mostly add-ons to degrees, rather than replacements. Three-quarters of edX’s students already had a bachelor’s degree upon enrolling. But the collaboration with sought-after employers makes it more plausible that they could eventually become established as a stand-alone testament to a job applicant’s worth.

目前，這些在線課程大多起到錦上添花的作用，并不能取代學歷。四分之三的edX網課注冊學員已有學士學位。然而，通過與就業市場上廣受歡迎的公司合作，此平臺上的網課可能最終成為體現應聘者能力的又一證明。

In the meantime the decision not to go to university remains risky, even though many graduates will end up doing work that used to be done by non-graduates—or struggle to find a job at all. Around half of unemployed South Koreans now have degrees. For them, the very concept of a “graduate premium” may seem a mockery. Kim Hyang Suk, a recruiter in South Korea, says that half the applicants for customer-service jobs at her firm are graduates, even though only a secondary-school education is specified.

許多大學生最終從事于非大學畢業生就可以勝任的工作，還有一些根本找不到工作，但同時，不上大學仍然是有風險的。韓國近一半的待業者都有大學學歷。對他們來說，“大學生是稀缺人才”這一觀念是極其可笑的。樸香淑是一家公司的招聘官，她談到，應聘他們公司客服領域的求職者有一半是大學生，雖然這些職位只要求中學學歷。

She would prefer school-leavers with experience, says Ms Kim, to inexperienced graduates whom she will have to train. She is not looking for swots, but people who are “engaging, good on the phone”. But when few employers are this open-minded, most young people will want a degree. It may not boost their earnings as much as they had hoped, but without one, they will probably fare even worse.

相比于經驗不足大學畢業生，樸女士更青睞于有經驗的中學畢業生，招收后者，也省去了入職培訓。她要的不是書呆子，而是能在客服電話中吸引客戶能說會道的員工。然而，這樣開明的雇主在韓國實屬罕見，所以大部分年輕人仍然想擁有學歷。雖然一張學位證書所帶來的收入增長可能達不到年輕人的預期要求，但要是沒有大學學位，他們很有可能面臨更糟糕的就業前景。

翻譯是我們觀察世界的方式，也是我們的興趣所在。

“取經號”是一個專注于外媒翻譯的社區組織，微信號是?JTWest，是 Journey to the West 的英文縮寫，也可以通過qujinghao.com訪問我們。